^{Copyright © 2009 Jay Charles Johnson, all rights reserved}

In most Fantasy leagues, the playoffs have arrived.  If you have gotten this far, give yourself a pat on the back, as skill more than luck probably had a lot to do with your success.  However from this point forward, luck becomes a more significant factor.  Playoff games are head-to-head contests and unfortunately it all boils down to how well your players do in that one particular week versus the opposition players.

Over the years some of my best teams never made it past the first round of the playoffs, while other teams that I didn’t think were very good went on to win the league championship.  So, if you wash out in the early rounds, don’t take it as a reflection of your Fantasy skills.  Remember, in the playoffs anything can happen and no one can predict the outcome with any certainty.

On to the Week 13 player notes, which do not include those involved in the Baltimore/Green Bay contest at Lambeau Field tonight.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees

It does seem absurd to say that a QB who threw for 419 yards and 2 TDs did not have one of his better days, but that was the case for Drew Brees.  He and the Saints seemed to be suffering a let down from their dominating performance over the Patriots a week earlier.  Their play was substandard for most of the game and they almost let an inferior Redskins team beat them.  As it was, it took a fluke turnover play and a missed chip-shot field goal for them to overtake Washington 33-30 in OT.

Whether it is luck, fate or talent, the bottom line is that the Saints remain undefeated at 12-0 and Brees came through when things really mattered.  He led a no-timeout, 80 yard drive in just 33 seconds to tie the game in regulation. 

After the game, Brees laughingly dismissed talk of Cajun voodoo helping the team, but he did suggest that the Saints were a team of destiny.  Until they lose a game I am certainly not going to contradict him.

Tony Romo

Although it was in a losing 31-24 effort to the Giants, Tony Romo statistically had one of his best days as a pro, completing 41 of 55 passes for 392 yards and 3 TDs.  More importantly, this occurred in the month of December, giving his owners optimism that they won’t see a season ending slump that has plagued him in prior years.  

Next week the Cowboys will be hosting the San Diego Chargers, and Dallas will have to win this game in order to stay atop the NFC East standings.  How well Romo performs should be a truer indicator of where he stands as far as taking this team to the playoffs and beyond.

Matt Schaub

Schaub dislocated his shoulder when sacked on the Texan’s first play (the same shoulder that required surgery in 2007) and initially was not expected to return to the game.  He came back late in the second quarter but by that time Houston was down 17 points. 

With the loss of playing time, he still finished the day 19 of 27 for 207 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT.  But this was not enough to help either the Texans (who fell 23-18 to the Jaguars) or many of his Fantasy owners (who complained bitterly on message boards that their narrow losses would have been avoided if he had played the entire game).

Schaub will have an MRI today but he noted after the game that it was on his non-throwing arm and that he doesn’t expect the injury to cost him any playing time.  Per Rotoworld, coach Gary Kubiak announced Monday that Schaub has a “good chance” to face Seattle in Week 14.

Vince Young

After winning five straight games Vince Young had a bit of a reality check, but facing the undefeated Colts can do that to you.  There were no heroics or miracle plays this time in the 27-17 loss to Indianapolis.  However, despite a slow start, Young finished the day with a respectable numbers, being 24 of 43 for 241 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.  Yes, he could have looked better, but given the competition, he gave a good account of himself.

Bruce Gradkowski

Where have the Raiders been keeping this guy all season?  Playing in his hometown of Pittsburgh, Gradkowski acted like the gunslinger QB the Raiders have been looking for in the recent years and hoped they had found in Jamarcus Russell.

Gradkowski looked great, repeatedly rallying the team from behind and finished the day by completing 20 of 33 passes for 308 yards and 3 TDs. And those 3 TDs all came in the fourth quarter, resulting in a stunning 27-24 upset of the Steelers.

As a Raiders fan from their days playing here in L.A., I can’t help but thinking that the team would be better than their 4-8 record in Gradkowski had been the starter all season.  Hopefully the Jamarcus Russell experiment is over for the time being, but with Al Davis, who knows for sure?

Alex Smith

Alex Smith showed continued improvement with another big day, completing 27 of 45 passes for 310 yards, 2 TDs, and no INTs.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to beat the Seahawks, who bested the 49ers, 20-17 in Seattle.  Even so, Smith is beginning to look like he may actually justify the first round pick the 49ers expended on him back in 2005.

Jason Campbell

It was pretty much a given that along the HC Jim Zorn, this would be Jason Campbell’s last year as a Washington Redskin.  That may still be the case, but Campbell made a persuasive argument yesterday that it might be a mistake to go in another direction at the QB position.

Campbell looked poised and ran the Redskins offense with a confidence that was lacking earlier in the season.  He completed 30 of 42 passes for 367 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.  He would have led Washington to an upset victory over the Saints if Sean Suisham had not missed a 23 yard chip field goal with less than 2 minutes to play.

With a new regime coming in the offseason, Campbell will more likely than not be with another team in 2010.  However he has served notice that it is premature to write off his future in the NFL.  Dynasty owners would be advised not to hold him in the offseason.

Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel was benched in the 44-13 drubbing by the Broncos after a miserable day, completing only 6 of 14 passes for 50 yards.  His future still seems set as the QB of the future for Kansas City, but many people are now second guessing the decision to sign him.  His rather mediocre play has renewed the debate that he was a product of the Patriots system and while he produced well there in Brady’s absence, he can’t replicate that in another environment.

Josh Freeman

The good news is that Freeman passed for a career high 321 yards.  The bad news is that he threw for 5 INTs.  In the post game press conference, Freeman remarked that “I want to play in this league a long time.  Guys that throw a lot of picks usually don’t last.”  Can’t argue with him there.

Running Backs

Jonathan Stewart

Teammate DeAngelo Williams was a late scratch and Stewart responded by leading all NFL rushers with 26 carries for 120 yards and a TD in the 16-6 win over the Buccaneers.  Stewart has demonstrated that he is featured back material and will prove that at some point in the future whenever he and Williams no longer share the backfield.

Knowshon Moreno

In his last four games Moreno is starting to look like the top first round rookie pick expended by his Dynasty owners.  Moreno had 21 carries for 86 yards and 2 TDs yesterday, bringing his total in the last four contests to 351 yards rushing and 3 TDs.

He might have done even better against the Chiefs when one considers that Correll Buckhalter had a big game of his own with 12 carries for 113 yards.

Chris Johnson

Even when the Titans lose, Chris Johnson seems to have a good Fantasy day, as evidenced by yesterday’s numbers of 27 carries for 113 yards, plus 6 receptions for another 28 yards.  It was his seventh straight game of over 100 yards, tying the franchise record of the great Earl Campbell.

Joseph Addai

Addai continued to benefit from the absence of Donald Brown, rushing 21 times for 79 yards with 2 TDs.  Actually, he had more TDs than Peyton Manning did yesterday (the first time that has happened this season).  Addai’s numbers should drop once Brown is healthy again, but at this point Brown’s future playing status is unknown, so Addai’s owners should have another week where they can start him with confidence.

Cedric Benson

Benson carried the ball 36 times for 110 yards and left no doubt that he is completely recovered from the hip injury that sidelined him in the two previous contests.  It was his fifth 100+ yard game of the season and he should remain the Bengals bell-cow RB despite the presence of Larry Johnson

Matt Forte

In a novel twist to their offense, the Bears actually established some sort of running game and Forte responded with 24 carries for 91 yards and a TD.  If they had tried this approach earlier in the season, they might have a better record than the current 5-7.  It is too late to salvage this season, but perhaps in the remaining games they can strike some sort of balance between run and pass that hopefully will carry over into next year.

Brandon Jacobs

Jacobs runs a close second to Forte as being one the biggest Fantasy disappointments at the RB position this year.  He did show signs of life yesterday with 113 all purpose yards, including 2 TDs (one of which being his only catch for 74 yards). While this game was an encouraging note, Jacobs remains, at best, a flex play and even then starting him would depend upon the matchup.

Jerome Harrison

Harrison only had 35 yards on 10 carries on the ground, but made up for in the passing game with 7 catches for 62 yards and 2 TDs.  It was expected that Mangini would make Chris Jennings the main ball carrier for the Browns.  However Harrison clearly outperformed him, as Jennings only rushed for 28 yards on 5 carries and had just 1 catch for 2 yards.  So, at this point the starting RB position is not locked down, with Harrison currently having the edge given yesterday’s outing.

Wide Receivers

Robert Meachem

Robert Meachem was the WR to own yesterday.  Not only did he have 8 catches for 142 yards and a TD, he also scored a second TD on a fluke play, in which he took away a Brees interception from a Washington defender and ran it in for a 44 yard TD.

How to score that second TD from a Fantasy perspective was the subject of heated debates on message boards with no clear cut answer.  Officially it was ruled a fumble return, and if so, then the points should go to the Saints defense, as would any other fumble return resulting in a TD.

However, some leagues didn’t see it that way, as the Saints defense was not on the field and ruled it to be an offensive TD with the points going solely by Meachem. 

A third approach by some Commissioners was not to award any points to anyone.  This was how it was handled in one league I am in “Not a TD for Meachem since we don’t award offensive fumble recovery TDs for WRs or anyone else, nor is it a TD by the Saints since the defense wasn’t on the field.”

I am sorry but I don’t agree with the last two interpretations.  Yes, the Saints defense was not on the field, but the officials can hardly stop the play, let the teams switch sides and then resume the action.  Once the interception occurred, the Saints offensive players were playing defense and the TD should have been awarded to the Saints defense for that reason.

Fortunately this situation only happens once in a blue moon.  If this matter concerns you, then have your league address the issue in the offseason, so as to have a rule put in place that can be discussed and voted on.

Anyway, back to Meachem - he seems also to have emerged over Marques Colston as the # 1 WR for the Saints.  He has now had 21 catches for 346 yards and 6 TDs in last 5 games, which averages out to about 4 catches, 70 yards and a TD per game.  Sadly, I have to face him in a least one league next week.

Pierre Garcon

Sacre bleu!  Garcon had a career best day with 6 catches for 136 yards.  He didn’t score a TD, but it seems that with each passing week it is becoming less likely that Anthony Gonzalez will get the starting spot away from Garcon once he returns from injury.

Louis Murphy

I said a couple weeks back that of the Raiders WRs, Louis Murphy seemed the most promising to me for the balance of the season.  At least he did yesterday with 4 catches for 128 including 2 TDs, the last one being an 11 yard strike from Bruce Gradkowski, which sealed the 27-24 upset over the Steelers. 

This rookie is a play maker, and Fantasy owners should play close attention to his progress for the balance of the season.  He could well emerge as one the top sleeper picks in next year’s drafts.

Devin Thomas

Thomas is another waiver wire recommendation I made that seems to be paying off.  He looked great yesterday, showing some real nice footwork while making 7 catches for 100 yards and 2 TDs.  Unless the Redskins bring in a high profile free agent, Thomas should be starting opposite Santana Moss every game next season.

Davone Bess

Bess had 10 catches for 117 yards and a TD against the Patriots, but that was following just 3 catches for 34 yards the week before.  There is value in the Miami receiving corps, but the problem is trying to figure out who that will be in any given week.  Yesterday it was Bess, next Sunday it could just as easily be Camarillo, Hartline or Fasano.  This is just too unpredictable for me to justify starting any of them on a regular basis. 

Santonio Holmes

Holmes had his best game of the season, with 8 catches for 149 yards and a TD.  In prior years, his best numbers have usually come later in the year, so perhaps 2009 will continue that trend.

Percy Harvin

Harvin not only was the top WR for the Vikings yesterday with 6 receptions for 79 yards and a TD, he was also their leading rusher with 2 carries for 22 yards (Adrian Peterson was held to 19 yards, and Chester Taylor had just 21).  At this juncture Harvin remains the clear front runner for ROY (rookie of the year).

Steve Smith

Although he didn’t score a TD, Smith had 3 catches for 78 yards.  Matt Moore is no world beater, but he is a marked improvement over the inconsistent Delhomme.  The game yesterday suggests that as long as Moore is behind center, Smith can again be considered a starting or flex option for Fantasy owners.

Hines Ward

In late breaking news, it was reported today (via Adam Schefter on Twitter) that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin revealed at his Monday press conference that Hines Ward tweaked his hamstring in Sunday’s loss to Oakland and deemed Ward “very questionable” to face the Browns on Thursday night.

It is believed that Ward will be active for the game even if he doesn’t practice, but Tomlin was cautious in his remarks about Ward’s status noting, “We’ll see where it goes, but it’s not favorable for him.”

This news will cause many of Ward’s owners fits in making their lineup decisions.  Do they risk starting Ward and getting zero points or opt for a lesser option in a Sunday game?  I would probably sit him unless I heard prior to kick off that he looked 100% in pregame warm-ups.

Tight Ends

Jason Witten

I guess it is better late than never for the Jason Witten owners.  Although picked as the #1 TE in most drafts, Witten has been pretty much of a disappointment, but has made up for lost time in the last 2 weeks.  He had his second 100+ yard game of the season, with 14 catches for 158 yards against the Giants.  Those of his owners who survived his earlier poor production now seem to be in pretty good shape for their playoffs.

Antonio Gates

Gates didn’t score a TD but set a career receiving mark for 167 yards on 8 catches.  Continuing from the last few weeks, he is still the most targeted receiver of the Chargers and this continues to be at the expense of Vincent Jackson.  

Gates was targeted 9 times to 4 targets for Jackson, who did improve somewhat posting 2 catches for 54 yards.  I keep expecting defenses to realize they are focusing on the wrong receiver and getting burned by Gates as a consequence, but after 4 weeks of poor numbers by Jackson, that doesn’t seem to be happening.  The pendulum will swing back to Jackson at some point, but who knows when? 

On The Waiver Wire

Evan Moore - TE Browns

There has been a void at the TE position in Cleveland since the departure of Kelvin Winslow.  I don’t know if Evan Moore is the answer, but this second year player (who was just activated from the practice squad) dazzled yesterday with 6 catches for 80 yards.  Hard to say if this 6-6 247 lbs player will become the favorite target of Brady Quinn, but he is off to a very good start.

Zack Miller – TE Jaguars

There actually are two TEs in the NFL with the name Zach Miller.  The one who plays for the Jaguars is a rookie and was the leading receiver for Jacksonville yesterday with 3 catches for 74 yards (one was a 62 yard play).  Marcedes Lewis is the starting TE but has never impressed me.  Consequently, if Miller continues to improve he could well be the Jags # 1 TE in a year or two.

That’s all until next week.

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